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Each
major party presidential campaign recieves a
fixed amount of money from the Federal Election
Campaign Fund for the general election; once the
nomination has been secured and the conventions
concluded, it must determine how best to spend
that money. In some states the campaign
will "play hard" or even "play very hard."
These states receive frequent visits by the
candidate, his wife, the vice presidential
candidate, and surrogates, and the campaign
makes serious ad buys in them. At the
other extreme, some states are essentially
written off as unwinnable; they receive minimal
resources. |
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Persuadable Voters and
Base Voters
Once a
campaign has decided it will contest a particular
state, it does not blindly throw resources in. A
conventional rule of thumb in presidential elections
is that about 40 percent of those who turn out will
vote for the Republican candidate no matter what and
another 40 percent will vote for the Democrat no
matter what. Thus much energy and resources are
devoted to trying to reach the remaining 20 percent of
the electorate--persuadable swing voters--with
the right message.
Campaign
stops are scheduled in media markets with high
concentrations of persuadable voters. People in
these areas can expect to see a lot of political
ads. Direct mail pieces go out to swing
voters. The message is carefully tailored to
attract persuadables or allay their concerns. To
attract persuadables, the major party nominees
generally move toward the middle, toning down more
extreme elements of their messages that they had used
to appeal to party activists during the primaries.
In 2004,
however, the electorate was highly polarized; people
were for President Bush or they were against
him. The pool of persuadable voters was seen as
smaller and the campaigns focused much attention on
mobilizing their core supporters. As Election
Day approaches campaign redouble their efforts to
mobilize supporters. Phone-banking and
precinct-walking are staples of get-out-the-vote
(GOTV) efforts.
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For a
campaign, the electorate can be divided into
three groups: those who are for the
candidate, those who are "agin" him and the
undecided. In the fall, much of the
campaign's resources are directed to this
third group. Then, in the closing
weeks, the campaign makes a substantial
effort to mobilize its base
supporters. |
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Campaign Finance
The fall
campaigns of the major party candidates are financed
by direct grants from the Federal Election Campaign
Fund, which in turn is financed by the $3 check-off on
individual income tax returns. In 2004, the
Kerry/Edwards and Bush/Cheney campaigns each received
$74.620 million in federal funds to conduct their
general election campaigns (this is the $20 million
figure provided for in the 1974 Federal Election
Campaign Act adjusted for inflation). The
campaigns must agree to abide by a spending limit,
although they can raise funds for legal and accounting
expenses. The candidates officially become party
nominees at their conventions. The FEC certified
the Kerry campaign to receive the funds on July 30,
2004, and it certified the Bush campaign a month later
on September 2, 2004. Kerry campaign officials
have cited the fact that they had to spread their
funds out over a month longer than the Bush campaign
as a significant hurdle they had to overcome.
However, the campaigns are not the only players on the
field. The national parties are allowed to spend
a fixed amount advocating the election of their
nominees; the limit for coordinated party
expenditures in 2004 was $16,249,699. The parties are also free to make
independent expenditures supportive of their
nominees. In 2004 Section
527 groups such as America Coming Together and
The Media Fund on the Democratic side and Progress for
America and Swift Boat Vets and POWs for Truth on the
Republican side raised and spent significant sums of
money.
Ad Wars
Needless to
say, most of the money given to the campaigns goes
into television advertising. Generally in the
summer, the campaign will have put together an ad team
which includes both political and Madison Avenue
talent. Based on polling data, the themes the
campaign wants to stress will have been identified.
The ad team generates ideas to convey those themes,
and produces spots which are then tested in focus
groups, and, hopefully, approved by the campaign
management. However, the work does not stop with
an ad "in the can" and approved; careful planning is
required to ensure that the ads are seen by the target
audience. The demographic watching "60 Minutes"
differs markedly from that watching "Oprah." It
is left to media planners, juggling GRPs and dayparts,
to put together ad buys.
Of course
television is not the only paid medium available to
the campaigns. Radio is an effective way to
reach some audiences, for example during
drive-time. Because of its lower profile radio
is sometimes used to deliver negative messages.
Magazine and newspaper advertising can be very
effective, but are not often utilized.
Persuasion mail and phone calls also convey the
campaigns' messages as can Internet advertising.
In 2004 the Bush campaign pursued a more wide-ranging
advertising effort than the Kerry campaign, investing
significant amounts in cable and in radio.
General
Election Travel (Final 8 months of the campaign:
March 3-Nov. 2, 2004)
|
March |
April |
May |
June |
July |
Aug. |
Sept. |
Oct./Nov. |
Pres. George W. Bush |
x |
x |
x |
x |
x
|
x |
x
|
x
|
Vice Pres. and Mrs. Cheney |
x |
x |
x |
x |
x
|
x |
x
|
x
|
First Lady Laura Bush |
x |
x |
x |
x |
x
|
x |
x
|
x
|
Sen. John Kerry |
x |
x |
x |
x |
x
|
x |
x
|
x
|
Sen. John Edwards |
|
|
|
|
x
|
|
x
|
x
|
Teresa Heinz Kerry |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
x
|
Elizabeth Edwards |
|
|
|
|
|
x |
x |
x |
Ralph Nader |
|
x |
x |
x |
x |
x |
x
|
x
|
President Bush and
Senator Kerry Visits By State (Final 8 months: March 3-Nov. 2,
2004)
and DC.
See Also
Campaign
Communications >
Brennan
Center
reports
PBS
program "The 30-Second Candidate"
SRDS
Television Bureau of
Advertising
Nielsen Media
Research
Examples of
Media Planners/Buyers: Harmelin Media &
Associates, TBS
Media Management, Sherry Jacobs
Media
A Leading
Media Rep: Katz
Media Group, Inc.
Copyright
© 2004, 2005 Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in
Action.
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