IOWA | 7 Electoral Votes |
Republicans laid the groundwork for their success early on, doing lots of phone banking and identifying supporters so that by October 2004 there was a solid volunteer base ready to engage. These volunteers had been practicing and had very specific goals. Networks of get-out-the-vote callers went to work; using hundreds and hundreds of cell phones they were able to set up phone banks any where, any time. In the Friday, Saturday and Sunday before the election volunteers made at least 700,000 contacts going door to door and using phones. For the most part these were neighbors contacting neighbors, not some person from out of state knocking at the door or doing the calling. Further, President Bush's frequent visits to the state generated a lot of earned media.
On Election Day the work paid off as the Bush campaign "did better almost everywhere." Johnson County (Iowa City) provided one positive for the Democrats, but in almost every county west of Linn County the Bush ticket improved upon its margins. While Kerry improved upon Gore's showing in the major urban areas in many states, in Iowa Bush actually trimmed the margin in Polk County (Des Moines).
The Kerry campaign had help from America Coming Together, which reported its canvassers knocked on some 560,000 doors and had conversations with 266,000 people in the period from June through Election Day, in addition to running an aggressive absentee ballot program that focused on very infrequent voters.
However, the Democratic effort in Iowa suffered from a number of problems, which given Bush's 10,059 vote (0.67 percentage point) margin may well have cost the Kerry the state. Beyond the shortcomings that played out on the national level, such as Kerry's remark on the $87 billion supplemental for Iraq and campaign's slow response to the Swift Boat attacks, the Democratic campaign in Iowa seemed to have more than its share of internal tension. A Democratic operative identified some of the problems:
The Kerry folks always assumed he was going to get 90% of the D's and 66% of the I's. The D's were unexcited and the I's broke about 50%. The Kerry folks waited too long to respond to this "soft" support and never really concentrated their message on Independents. Even in the face of our door to door Canvass which showed that he was losing Independents, the Kerry folks depended too much on their computer driven data.The operative summed up, "All in all, it was a mess here in Iowa."The national folks underestimated the votes to win in Iowa. They used some fancy new computer formula instead of using Iowans' assessments and so blew their votes to win by under-targeting.
The Kerry operation was sluggish at response and couldn't get their act together to disperse resources because there were way too many chiefs in the mix.
The Kerry folks didn't trust anyone else to be on their calls. If you didn't work for Kerry, or support him in the caucuses, you weren't privy to inside information.
Democrats did pick up seats in both Houses of the General Assembly, going from 46-54 to 49-51 in the House and from 21-29 to 25-25 in the Senate. There was a bit of post-election strife over how Iowa Democratic Party executive director Jean Hessburg had allocated funds. Some Kerry supporters argued that Hessberg diverted money they had needed to state legislative races.1 However, House and Senate leaders note that they paid that money into the Coordinated Campaign and so it was theirs to spend. Additionally, the Kerry campaign didn't settle on an actual budget in Iowa until mid-October 2004; waiting for them would have jeopardized much. Finally, further underscoring the point, the Kerry campaign left over $650,000 in unspent campaign funds in Iowa Democratic Party accounts after Election Day.
1. Thomas Beaumont.
"Democrats to pick leader today." Des Moines Register.
Dec. 18, 2004.
Bush-Cheney '04 | Kerry-Edwards 2004 |
Organization details... | details... |
BC'04 State
Chair: David Roederer
Exec. Director: Scott Kopple Comm. Director: Ann-Marie Hauser Office: 621 E. 9th Street, Des Moines Iowa Victory 2004 Director: Ed Failor, Jr. Republican Party of Iowa
|
KE State Director:
Mike Malaise
Comm. Director: Colin Van Ostern also last month in Iowa: National Field Director John Norris Office: 1408 Locust Street, Des Moines Coordinated Campaign Director: Ben Foecke Iowa Democratic Party
|
Travel compare...
BUSH-CHENEY | KERRY-EDWARDS |
Final Month (Oct. 2-Nov. 2, 2004) | |
George
W. Bush - 7 visits (7 days)
Dick Cheney (and Lynne Cheney) - 5 visits (5 days) Laura Bush (solo) - 1 visit (1 day) |
John
Kerry - 6 visits (7 days)
John Edwards - 7 visits (8 days) Teresa Heinz Kerry (solo) - 2 visits (2 days) Elizabeth Edwards (solo) - 4 visits (6 days) |
Eight Months (March 2-Nov. 2, 2004) | |
George
W. Bush - 14 visits (14 days)
Dick Cheney (and Lynne Cheney) - 12 visits (13 days) Laura Bush (solo) - 5 visits (5 days) |
John
Kerry - 11 visits (12 days)
John Edwards - 10 visits (11 days) Teresa Heinz Kerry (solo) - 4 visits (5 days) Elizabeth Edwards (solo) - 8 visits (11 days) |
Newspaper Endorsements
BUSH
Sioux City Journal The Gazette [Cedar Rapids] (10/24/04) The Globe Gazette [Mason City] (10/14/04) |
KERRY
Des Moines Register (10/24/04) > *Quad City Times [Davenport] (10/24/04) *Iowa City Press-Citizen (10/23/04) The Hawk Eye [Burlington] (10/17/04) The Storm Lake Times (10/08/04) ...twice weekly *endorsed Bush in 2000 |
NO ENDORSEMENT
Ottumwa Courier (11/1/04) "We know Bush can be president. We also think Kerry could do the job, too." |
Polk County (Des Moines)
.2000 |
|
.2004 | ||||
Gore/Lieberman (Dem.) |
89,715
|
(51.51%) |
|
Kerry/Edwards (Dem.) |
105,218
|
(51.93%) |
Bush/Cheney (Rep.) |
79,927
|
(45.89%) |
|
Bush/Cheney (Rep.) |
95,828
|
(47.29%) |
Nader/LaDuke (IAG) |
3,366
|
(1.93%) |
|
Nader/Camejo (Pet.) |
561
|
(0.28%) |
Others (6+scatter) | 1,159 | (0.67%) |
|
Others (5+w/ins) | 1,011 | (0.50%) |
Total |
174,167
|
|
Total |
202,618
|
||
13.24% of statewide
total
|
Gore
plurality:
9,788 |
13.45% of statewide
total
|
Kerry
plurality:
9,390 |
Linn County (Cedar Rapids)
.2000 |
|
.2004 | ||||
Gore/Lieberman (Dem.) |
48,897
|
(53.11%) |
|
Kerry/Edwards (Dem.) |
60,442
|
(54.58%) |
Bush/Cheney (Rep.) |
40,417
|
(43.90%) |
|
Bush/Cheney (Rep.) |
49,442
|
(44.65%) |
Nader/LaDuke (IAG) | 2,106 | (2.29%) |
|
Nader/Camejo (Pet.) |
423
|
(0.38%) |
Others (6+scatter) | 644 | (0.70%) |
|
Others (5+w/ins) | 433 | (0.39%) |
Total |
92,064
|
|
Total |
110,740
|
||
7.00% of statewide
total
|
Gore
plurality:
8,480 |
7.35% of statewide
total
|
Kerry
plurality:
11,000 |
Scott County (Davenport)
.2000 |
|
.2004 | ||||
Gore/Lieberman (Dem.) |
35,857
|
(50.81%) |
|
Kerry/Edwards (Dem.) |
42,122
|
(50.92%) |
Bush/Cheney (Rep.) |
32,801
|
(46.48%) |
|
Bush/Cheney (Rep.) |
39,958
|
(48.30%) |
Nader/LaDuke (IAG) | 1,386 | (1.96%) |
|
Nader/Camejo (Pet.) |
284
|
(0.34%) |
Others (6+scatter) | 524 | (0.74%) |
|
Others (5+w/ins) | 358 | (0.43%) |
Total |
70,568
|
|
Total |
82,722
|
||
5.36% of statewide
total
|
Gore
plurality:
3,056 |
5.49% of statewide
total
|
Kerry
plurality:
2,164 |
Black Hawk County (Waterloo)
.2000 |
|
.2004 | ||||
Gore/Lieberman (Dem.) |
30,112
|
(54.66%) |
|
Kerry/Edwards (Dem.) |
35,392
|
(55.38%) |
Bush/Cheney (Rep.) |
23,468
|
(42.60%) |
|
Bush/Cheney (Rep.) |
28,046
|
(43.89%) |
Nader/LaDuke (IAG) | 1,132 | (2.06%) |
|
Nader/Camejo (Pet.) |
252
|
(0.39%) |
Others (6+scatter) | 373 | (0.68%) |
|
Others (5+w/ins) | 217 | (0.34%) |
Total |
55,085
|
|
Total |
63,907
|
||
4.19% of statewide
total
|
Gore
plurality:
6,644 |
4.24% of statewide
total
|
Kerry
plurality:
7,346 |
Johnson County (Iowa City)
.2000 |
|
.2004 | ||||
Gore/Lieberman (Dem.) |
31,174
|
(59.08%) |
|
Kerry/Edwards (Dem.) |
41,847
|
(64.01%) |
Bush/Cheney (Rep.) |
17,899
|
(33.92%) |
|
Bush/Cheney (Rep.) |
22,715
|
(34.75%) |
Nader/LaDuke (IAG) | 3,248 | (6.16%) |
|
Nader/Camejo (Pet.) |
309
|
(0.47%) |
Others (6+scatter) | 448 | (0.85%) |
|
Others (5+w/ins) | 502 | (0.77%) |
Total |
52,769
|
|
Total |
65,373
|
||
4.01% of statewide
total
|
Gore
plurality:
13,275 |
4.34% of statewide
total
|
Kerry
plurality:
19,132 |
Nine counties "changed color."
Going Democratic in 2000 to Republican
in 2004 were: Cedar, Greene, Louisa, and Winnebago.
Going Republican in 2000 to Democratic
in 2004 were: Fayette, Jasper, Jefferson, Poweshiek, and Winneshiek.
Nader
Iowa State Coordinator
(volunteer): David Larson of Waterloo
On August 12, 2004, one
day before the deadline, the campaign submitted more than 3,198 signatures.
Iowa requires 1,500 valid signatures, including signatures from at least
ten counties. The campaign submitted signatures in 76 counties.
On August 20 Lee Baldwin Jolliffe, a journalism professor at Drake University,
filed a challenge to the petition, pointing to discrepancies in the signatures.
A three-person panel consisting of Secretary of State Chet Culver, Attorney
General Tom Miller, and Auditor David Vaudt heard arguments from the two
sides on August 25 and announced the next day that Nader would appear on
the ballot.
Badnarik
The Libertarian Party vice
presidential nominee, attorney and psychological counselor Richard V. Campagna,
is a resident of Iowa City, Iowa.
Copyright © 2005
Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action.